The final stretch...

With 5 days to go, it is now John McCain's race to win.

Before this week it was primarily Barack Obama's race to lose, and I think he has.

With the Dow rising again this week, Joe the Plumber (more importantly Obama's response) surfacing the other week, the video of Rashid Khalidi the LA Times won't release (probably causing more damage for Obama than less),  McCain being able to get the race topic back, at least a bit, to his stronger point on security, and Biden being almost totally ineffective due to his gaffes.

McCain has been able to take Obama's probably strongest point, the economy, and take command of that issue, to some degree, with Joe the Plumber and his being able to portray Obama as a tax raiser, while he will cut taxes for everyone.

Every chance Obama has had to blow the race he has taken.

Now, with the polls closing, Republicans are getting more and more enthusiastic, as they are seeing again that we can win.

McCain is looking better and better and more comfortable, and Sarah Palin is looking more confident and in command every day.

Then we have Obama's infomercial last night. I only watched the first 10-20 minutes of it, but it doesn't look like it will change the race at all. Primarily it was other people speaking of their troubles and him commenting on it - in fact, the highest point of the whole thing for those polled was when he commented on someone losing their retirement, which is all fine and good, but he didn't go on in detail on ho he would actually help fix that issue.

There were a few scattered moments when he got back to policy.

I noted he has again changed his designation of "well-off" to $200,000 a year, down from $250,000  a year.

There were many other spin statements made, here is a link to an AP fact check on it:

AP fact check

All in all, that is why I think the race is now McCain's to win, Obama made a desperate attempt at closing the deal last night, and he didn't do it, now is McCain's turn, let's see how he does.

2 weeks to go...

Lot's of happenings these last few days.

Biden made a serious gaffe on Sunday, which McCain has already begun to use in his speeches. (link)
Basically, Biden said that the world is watching this election, and if Obama wins, he will be tested with a "generated crisis" to test his mettle.
Obama supporters are trying to spin this to mean that the generated crisis in Iraq will test whoever wins.
The problems with that, though, is that Biden specifically said Obama several times, clearly and was not talking about "either candidate", and he was referring to a new crisis that will be generated specifically to test of Obama.
Hard to spin that gaffe...

A new poll was released by the Military Time (link) shows support for McCain at an overwhelming 67% to Obama's 23%.

Rasmussen also (link) shows McCain slowly beginning to gain momentum again. Joe the Plumber and Joe the Senator are giving McCain his best shot at this he has had in ages I think.
Obama still boasts 50% support, but that is down from his peak of 53% a few weeks back. McCain is up as many points as Obama is down, and is now within 4 points again.

Another person who is helping McCain is Representative John Murtha, who backtracked from his blanket "Western Pennsylvania is a racist area" to stating that there are a large number of rednecks, but that it was worse years ago - as if that is a bad thing.
If anything will get the Republican vote out more than anything it is people continually calling them dumb racists.

The first two debates...

Following the first Presidential debate, Obama has opened a large lead, both nationally and in many key battleground states.
The polls have now remained steady for a week - so the only conclusion I can reach is Obama did indeed win the first debate.

McCain did far better than I was anticipating, and it looked like point for point he got in more hits on Obama - but obviously the American audience disagreed.


Now, following the VEEP debate, I think McCain will rebound in the polls, at least moderately, if only until the next Presidential debate.

The reason's being are simple.
First, I think Obama is already above the real ceiling of support he can get, being around 50-51% steadily across several polls.
Second, nothing Palin did will have put off anyone who had not already written her off to begin with.
Third, Biden did nothing, in my opinion, to gain any kind of new support for Obama.

That leaves things to remain as they are, or go in the direction of McCain.

I think they will move in his direction, though, because it appears most people agree Palin won the debate. She appeared far more knowledgeable than most gave her credit for, and she was successful at attacking Obama/Biden several times.

Frank Luntz held a focus group during the debate that was split evenly between people who went for Kerry and Bush in 2004.
When asked who won the debate, all but, to my count, 3 or 4 people said it was Palin.
Also, the most well-received statement in this (or even in the first debate as well, if I recall correctly) came from Palin.

On the other hand, Luntz' focus group during the first debate gave Obama the win, as well as the best line.

Also, the response from Democrats, that I have seen, has been far more subdued this time than with the Presidential debate - which for me is a clear indicator of who really won.
A lot of them are saying she did absolutely nothing but avoid questions and get back to her talking points.
But that is also exactly what Biden did throughout.
Is it a good style - yes, and no.
I disagree with it because I would prefer to see more substance, but, it appears to work with people, and the sound-bytes play well in the media, so I'm not surprised.

So I think that without doubt, this will be reflected positively in the polls in a few days once they begin to register it.
It may disappear again with the next debate, but we will have to see.

Well done Governor Palin!

Joe Biden...

He seems to be in quite a pickle - and for good reason.

When he was first picked I was actually quite pleased - but not in the same way as some Republicans were, in that he is gaffe prone.
I actually quite liked Biden - because he seemed a lot more experienced, reasonable and better on the issues that matter to me than the other Democrats who had run for the presidency.

But the more I listen to him, the more I am starting to think "What on Earth?"


Now he has really started to show his true colors.
Even Obama is starting to get worried I think, because, with everyone already complaining that Palin is inaccessible to the media, and not in the limelight and whatnot, Biden has really been pulled back, and hasn't been as visible now for a few weeks.

So let's look at some of his most recent statements that have caused this situation for him.

Paying higher taxes is the patriotic duty of wealthy Americans...
This is seriously weird.
The founding fathers of our nation were the wealthy, and when England decided to start raising taxes on them (and the rest of the states) because of their economic turmoil - they stood up and said no.
Were they unpatriotic?
Is it really "patriotic" to pay a larger percent of taxes so that we can keep going with the same policies we have had for years?
Spend more, more special programs, more this, more that.
I say enough.

There is more than enough tax-payer money going into Washington already.
What would truly be the patriotic response to this turmoil would be to cut government expenses, and get back to small government principles.
If we keep on just adding more and more departments and programs and spending to the government, then, frankly, we will always need to raise taxes.
It will never be enough.

We cannot get out of debt if we keep on spending more and more.
While raising taxes on the rich will provide a short term "quick fix" for the problem, it won't be able to last unless we work on the parts of government that are failing.

Patriotism is not giving everything you get to your government to keep it on it's feet, so that it can give a "fair share" to everyone, that is communism.


Biden attacked Obama's new ad portraying McCain as out of touch merely because he is not computer literate.
Then - the campaign released a statement that he had not yet even seen the ad - so he was in no position to comment as he did, and that he now agrees with the ad.
Please - either he is simply trying to destroy Obama for whatever reason - or he knew what he was talking about and now is trying to cover is rear region.


While in Virginia on Saturday - Biden stated that Obama most certainly was not against the Second Amendment right to bear arms - and that he would have an issue if Obama tried to take away his guns.
In actuality, Obama endorsed the Illinois state gun ban.
Obama believes state or local government can constrain the exercise of the right to bear arms.
So, basically, Obama's position is to support the Second Amendment, but allow states to restrict it.
Read more here.

You know, it is really funny, Democrats are always complaing when someone says "Leave that to the states", "That is a state, and not a federal responsibility", etc.
With this, though, he is saying it is ok for a state to go blatantly against the Constitution. How would they respond if a state enacted a law banning all abortions?


Biden has also stated that Hillary Clinton may have been a better VEEP pick...
Ouch - I guess that just shows how good Obama's ability to make important decisions is... even the person he picked thinks he made a dumb move.


Now Obama has chided Biden for voicing opposition to the federal bailout of AIG.
I guess even Obama is finally realizing he just plain doesn't mesh well with Biden...


Biden recently stated that neither he nor Obama support clean coal, when, well, Obama does. Then,once again, he flipped around once he realized that he had just gone contrary to his own campaign...


With all that speaking opposite of his own campaign - it can't really be a surprise that Biden is being kept a little low-profile at the moment.

It shall be interesting to see how this goes from here - but I think Palin may actually have a good chance in a debate now, if Biden can't keep from gaffeing up all the time...

McCain's pick is looking more and more Brilliant...

New polling data from rasmussen, this being the first day to really take into account Sarah Palin's speech, has some interesting results.
First, she is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, compared to 57% apiece for McCain and Obama, and only 48% for Biden.
Second, McCain is now back to within one point of Obama, trailing 46% to 45%, and, I would like to mention, this poll does not yet take into account the effects of McCain's speech or the end of the Convention.
This means that before the end of the Republican convention, McCain/Palin had already negated all bounce Obama/Biden got last week.

It seems her speech was liked very well, and, expecially considering she had to wing it for almost half the speech with the teleprompter being messed up, I am really impressed. Her second national speech and she is doing awesome - if this is her as inexperienced and unkowledgeable on the issues - I can't wait to see how she does when she is an expert...

Now to see how well McCain's speech played. I think it will do quite well actually - it was meant to appeal to moderates and independants - and it had plenty of actual policy specifics to let people think about what his presidency would bring, but not enough that he overdid it.

You go Governor Palin!

What an incredible speech this was. The policy, the points, the wit and humor, the attacks and defenses. It was perfect, or very close.
The audience was one their feet more often than not.

In that speech she really looked VEEP, or even POTUS material.
The way she described her approach, and McCain's approach to politics and issues was delivered very well.

And the one liners - wow. Usually I don't like them much as they really don't get to the heart of the issue well in most cases, but she had so many really good ones, that did get to the heart of the issue, it was really incredible, and it was probably a good thing she stopped when she did.

Some of my favorites.
"Some people use change to advance their career, and some use their career to advance change."

"Here's a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I'm not going to Washington to seek their good opinion — I'm going to Washington to serve the people of the country"

"I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a `community organizer,' except that you have actual responsibilities."

Really an awesome speech, and, between her and Giuliani, I think this was far more electrifying than anything the DNC delivered last week.
The organizers at the speech couldn't control the crowd, trying to get people to sit down after they had been clapping and cheering and chanting various mantras for some time, and the people kept going.
This even makes me think that she may be able to go toe-to-toe with Biden, and maybe even steal the show from him. If she can be as straight as she was tonight, if she can cut to the issues, then I would tell Biden watch out - she is one tough woman.

Well done, Governor. And G-d bless you!

EDIT:
Here is a transcript:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94118910

Biden better get it in writing!

Well, I missed most of the speakers tonight - but I've been watching Rudy Giuliani - and he has been rocking - I can't wait to see Palin after this!

And he has highlighted one of th worst traits of Obama - change position every different day.
Accept federal funds, then not.
Support an undivided Jerusalem, then not the next day.
And the list goes on...
As Giuliani says, Biden better get that VEEP deal in writing.

On foreign policy, from Iraq to Georgia and Russia, to China, to Iran.
Obama has gotten it wrong, after stating he would do it the right way.
And John McCain has not shifted his position -and it was the right position the whole time.
As Giuliani says, Obama, before you discuss foreign policy, talk to John McCain!


McCain has sacrificed for this country, has served in the Senate, working on important legislature, working with anyone who wanted to help America.
Obama was a community organizer, and a "present vote" politician before his only term in the Senate.


It is time. We need a leader who has already been tested, and we know has passed with flying colors.
We need to elect someone who knows what he believes, and has not waivered on these beliefs even when it was not politically correct!

Well done Rudy, and, as he says, let's elect John McCain and Sarah Palin!

This should be interesting...

Well, McCain picked Sarah Palin. While I was hoping for Eric Cantor, Palin was my third favorite, after Romney. I just don't think she will bring as much in terms of experience or help in key states as the other two.

Clearly McCain is hoping Palin will appeal to a wide range of people, from Clinton supporters who were hoping for the first woman, to conservatives looking for someone to add a little excitement to the ticket, to independants who wanted to make sure McCain would pick a Veep who was just as willing to take on corrupt politicians from either party, and be willing to work with Democrats to get things done.

When I first turned on the news this morning I was really quite shocked, and a little worried that McCain had picked her. I just don't think she has the experience needed. And I am very nervous about how well she will be able to go toe-to-toe with Biden.

She hasn't had to take on serious Democratic opponents yet, as far as I have seen, as Alaska is a very Red state.
Biden has been debating in the Senate since Palin was 9 years old.
Watching her speech this morning, it was plain, that while it was a great speech, and she is a talented speaker, she was also very nervous. McCain kept encouraging her along - which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it shows she has little experience speaking on a national level, and that may hurt her.
So, I will be very interested to see how well she will fare against Biden.

Also, the fact that she is a pro-life woman, may be more threatening to Clinton supporters than men who are that way - so she may end up alienating them more than bringing them in.

Another thing is, she is not going to help much in any of the swing states for McCain, unlike Cantor or Romney would have. She may bring in some Clinton supporters, but, in the end, it is all about the electoral vote, not the popular.
Clinton supporters will definitely help with the latter, but I have doubts as to how much the will assist with the former.


I think McCain just decided the election with this selection. If Palin winds up being able to do well against Biden, and is able to bring in a lot of Clinton's former supporters, and she does well in the other areas McCain needs her, then he will win.
But if she can't handle Biden, or can't deliver Clinton supporters in key states, then it will be an uphill battle for McCain.

The other problem with her some people have voiced is that she is currently under investigation from her state senate.
Basically, they are saying she fired someone because he failed to fire a state trooper who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin's sister.
The trooper reportedly threatened to kill her father (and Palin's), tasered his 11 year old stepson, and violated game laws.
Palin asserts that she did not fire the official for this, but instead because he had failed to fill State Trooper vacancies, and because he did not turn out to be a team player on budgeting issues.

I think this is the weakest point against her though, considering the problems Obama has had with this kind of thing, and the problems Biden has had as well, this should not be a serious issue, especially considering the person in charge of the investigation into Palin's dismissal stated that commissioners serve at will, thus she could fire them at any time, it does not appear this will cause any lasting difficulty for her.