This should be interesting...

Well, McCain picked Sarah Palin. While I was hoping for Eric Cantor, Palin was my third favorite, after Romney. I just don't think she will bring as much in terms of experience or help in key states as the other two.

Clearly McCain is hoping Palin will appeal to a wide range of people, from Clinton supporters who were hoping for the first woman, to conservatives looking for someone to add a little excitement to the ticket, to independants who wanted to make sure McCain would pick a Veep who was just as willing to take on corrupt politicians from either party, and be willing to work with Democrats to get things done.

When I first turned on the news this morning I was really quite shocked, and a little worried that McCain had picked her. I just don't think she has the experience needed. And I am very nervous about how well she will be able to go toe-to-toe with Biden.

She hasn't had to take on serious Democratic opponents yet, as far as I have seen, as Alaska is a very Red state.
Biden has been debating in the Senate since Palin was 9 years old.
Watching her speech this morning, it was plain, that while it was a great speech, and she is a talented speaker, she was also very nervous. McCain kept encouraging her along - which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it shows she has little experience speaking on a national level, and that may hurt her.
So, I will be very interested to see how well she will fare against Biden.

Also, the fact that she is a pro-life woman, may be more threatening to Clinton supporters than men who are that way - so she may end up alienating them more than bringing them in.

Another thing is, she is not going to help much in any of the swing states for McCain, unlike Cantor or Romney would have. She may bring in some Clinton supporters, but, in the end, it is all about the electoral vote, not the popular.
Clinton supporters will definitely help with the latter, but I have doubts as to how much the will assist with the former.


I think McCain just decided the election with this selection. If Palin winds up being able to do well against Biden, and is able to bring in a lot of Clinton's former supporters, and she does well in the other areas McCain needs her, then he will win.
But if she can't handle Biden, or can't deliver Clinton supporters in key states, then it will be an uphill battle for McCain.

The other problem with her some people have voiced is that she is currently under investigation from her state senate.
Basically, they are saying she fired someone because he failed to fire a state trooper who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin's sister.
The trooper reportedly threatened to kill her father (and Palin's), tasered his 11 year old stepson, and violated game laws.
Palin asserts that she did not fire the official for this, but instead because he had failed to fill State Trooper vacancies, and because he did not turn out to be a team player on budgeting issues.

I think this is the weakest point against her though, considering the problems Obama has had with this kind of thing, and the problems Biden has had as well, this should not be a serious issue, especially considering the person in charge of the investigation into Palin's dismissal stated that commissioners serve at will, thus she could fire them at any time, it does not appear this will cause any lasting difficulty for her.

Who will be McCain's VP pick...

After Obama picked Biden it has become even clearer that the VP's may well decide this race. With McCain and Obama about even in every poll, it may come down to wh picks the better VP.

I think Biden was the best choice for Obama. For numerous reasons, but for me personally because Biden was my personal favorite of the Dems - which isn't saying much I know. Another reason is his experience will help Obama a lot.

For McCain then it is down to 3 or 4 choices I think.

First, Mitt Romney is the one I personally would like most, or second most. The biggest problem with him, though, is that with McCain hammering Biden about his criticism of Obama and support for McCain, Obama will be able to say the exact same thing about Romney and McCain, as I don't think they really like each other much - and they were very heated during the primaries.
On the good side though, he will certainly help in Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, etc. And you know he would be willing to go toe-to-toe with Biden.

Then you have Tom Ridge. I think this is a very bad idea, mainly because McCain has not assured the vote of a lot of conservatives, and Ridge would only alienate more. The one good thing he brings with him is a good shot at Pennsylvania...

You also have Eric Cantor, I think. He is the other that I would like most. The reason he is better than the other younger possibilities is because he does have some more experience, he will help with the Jewish vote in some places, and because he will help in Virginia, another must-win for McCain. He will also help with conservatives.

Finally, there is the possibility he might pick Pawlenty. I think this would be the worst, as I don't think he'll bring Minnesota, and I don't see what he would bring to the ticket. Also I hear he is not as a good a debater - which the VP must be this time around.

There are probably other choices too, but I think their bad points out-weigh their good ones.
Rudy Giuliani will add nothing but more scandals.
Joe Lieberman will not add anything McCain needs with Republicans - and while he might bring in a few Independents, will that offset the conservatives who could not swallow the Republican party adding a past Democrat and liberal to the ticket?
Palin and Jindal, I think they won't add as much as Cantor - but who knows?
Condi Rice will only draw the parallel to Bush that McCain does not need.

I think Huckabee is also completely out of the question - he would add nothing but more problems with conservatives for McCain.


I think right now, of the choices above McCain should pick Cantor, or Palin.
Pawlenty might help if McCain thinks he really can bring in Minnesota - but I doubt it, and he doesn't strike me as a bulldog that will help outside of Minnesota either.

I think, though, in the end it will be Ridge that he picks. Mainly because he will combat Biden in Pennsylvania and because he has foreign affairs experience, and because of his pro-abortion stance he will help bring in some more of those Clinton supporters who are on the fence. I just hope he doesn't alienate conservatives too much with the choice.

The polls

Well, I woke up this morning, and I checked rasmussen as I usually do. Yesterday I received an email from John McCain's campaign about how they were expecting Obama to get a little bounce in the polls out of the DNC and Biden. And Obama had gained two points on rasmussen since he picked Biden - so I thought maybe they were right...

Now I checked this morning and McCain is once again tied with Obama - 46% apiece.
Other polls are showing a similar gain on McCain's part as well.

Another interesting thing is, rasmussen keeps track of state polls too, and they have an "electoral college" line-up of who they think will win where and whatnot...
And the awesome thing is that McCain is up from 165 to 183, while Obama is down from 210 to 193.

I noticed a similar trend when I looked to see which states had switched - and every single state in the last month has moved more Republican. From Likely Dem to Leaning, or Leaning Dem to a toss-up, or a toss-up to Leaning Rep, etc.

The best news for me, and the most disturbing for Obama, is that he is supported by only 78% of Democrats - almost a quarter do not trust him yet! 21% of Democratic women say they will be voting for McCain.
McCain has slight lead among unaffiliated voters as well.
Similarly, McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters nationwide, with Obama attracting 53%.

Very encouraging news, now let's hope that McCain will make the right choice for his VP.