The final stretch...

With 5 days to go, it is now John McCain's race to win.

Before this week it was primarily Barack Obama's race to lose, and I think he has.

With the Dow rising again this week, Joe the Plumber (more importantly Obama's response) surfacing the other week, the video of Rashid Khalidi the LA Times won't release (probably causing more damage for Obama than less),  McCain being able to get the race topic back, at least a bit, to his stronger point on security, and Biden being almost totally ineffective due to his gaffes.

McCain has been able to take Obama's probably strongest point, the economy, and take command of that issue, to some degree, with Joe the Plumber and his being able to portray Obama as a tax raiser, while he will cut taxes for everyone.

Every chance Obama has had to blow the race he has taken.

Now, with the polls closing, Republicans are getting more and more enthusiastic, as they are seeing again that we can win.

McCain is looking better and better and more comfortable, and Sarah Palin is looking more confident and in command every day.

Then we have Obama's infomercial last night. I only watched the first 10-20 minutes of it, but it doesn't look like it will change the race at all. Primarily it was other people speaking of their troubles and him commenting on it - in fact, the highest point of the whole thing for those polled was when he commented on someone losing their retirement, which is all fine and good, but he didn't go on in detail on ho he would actually help fix that issue.

There were a few scattered moments when he got back to policy.

I noted he has again changed his designation of "well-off" to $200,000 a year, down from $250,000  a year.

There were many other spin statements made, here is a link to an AP fact check on it:

AP fact check

All in all, that is why I think the race is now McCain's to win, Obama made a desperate attempt at closing the deal last night, and he didn't do it, now is McCain's turn, let's see how he does.

2 weeks to go...

Lot's of happenings these last few days.

Biden made a serious gaffe on Sunday, which McCain has already begun to use in his speeches. (link)
Basically, Biden said that the world is watching this election, and if Obama wins, he will be tested with a "generated crisis" to test his mettle.
Obama supporters are trying to spin this to mean that the generated crisis in Iraq will test whoever wins.
The problems with that, though, is that Biden specifically said Obama several times, clearly and was not talking about "either candidate", and he was referring to a new crisis that will be generated specifically to test of Obama.
Hard to spin that gaffe...

A new poll was released by the Military Time (link) shows support for McCain at an overwhelming 67% to Obama's 23%.

Rasmussen also (link) shows McCain slowly beginning to gain momentum again. Joe the Plumber and Joe the Senator are giving McCain his best shot at this he has had in ages I think.
Obama still boasts 50% support, but that is down from his peak of 53% a few weeks back. McCain is up as many points as Obama is down, and is now within 4 points again.

Another person who is helping McCain is Representative John Murtha, who backtracked from his blanket "Western Pennsylvania is a racist area" to stating that there are a large number of rednecks, but that it was worse years ago - as if that is a bad thing.
If anything will get the Republican vote out more than anything it is people continually calling them dumb racists.

Some Humor...

Well, this campaign has been getting rather heated, so I think everyone must have agreed it is a time for a truce, and a little self examination (read bashing).

Tonight McCain and Obama "squared off" in their final meeting. The subject? Humor.
There were some good ones from both, but you have to watch to really get them all, but it is definitely worth it...

McCain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRSmQqw65Pg

Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5SWQJWm6Tg


Now after that, for a little dumb voter humor (I can't find the one from about the protesters at the GOP convention, but this one is funny too)

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/999596/

Final Presidential debate...

This was by far McCain's strongest showing - in my view as well as others (including Democrats).

I think McCain actually won this debate, in that he made more points, he was on the offense more, and he actually gave specifics (such as which government programs he would cut).
Obama was more eloquent (though he did stutter a bit as he was trying to phrase tough answers so as not to offend anyone) and survived.

In the end that may be all that matters - McCain didn't destroy Obama, thus he lost the event (not the debate, but the night).

Frank Luntz' ran a focus group as well during the debate. Most of the people in the group (all moderate undecideds) said Obama won, but only 4 out of 23 said they now supported Obama.
McCain's biggest points came when he told Obama "I am not George Bush, if you waned to run against George Bush you should have run four years ago."
For Obama it came when he highlighted how he hoped the atmosphere of the campaigns for the next few weeks should be.

Should be interesting to see how this plays - but I don't think McCain will get a large boost from this, but I don't think Obama will either.
The difference is though that McCain needed it, Obama didn't.

Barack Obama is a socialist...

Following Obama's notorious statement about "spreading the wealth around is good for everyone" (link) - and the obvious socialist tint of that, some new information has come out about his past political associations.

Remember when everyone made that big fuss about Todd Palin being a registered member of a radical third party in Alaska? Well now it has been shown that he was a member of the "New Party" (established by the Democratic Socialists of America) - a party that has been proven unconstitutional. Funny how it is so big an issue for the spouse of the VEEP canidate being part of a radical third party, but not when it is the actual POTUS candidate from the other side...

When the news of this first came out Barack Obama was quick to say that he had been endorsed, but never a member of the party, and that he couldn't control who supported him or not.
This is untrue.
Following the links in this article (politicallydrunk and American Thinker) it is clear that he was indeed an active member of the party and sought out their endorsement.

The first part of his statement that he was not a member was thus a lie, and the second part is untrue, because if he actively sought out their endorsement then he did have control over their supporting him, at least to an extent.

The article also reveals that the party then systematically attempted to cover up this connection, purging articles from websites.


Another interesting note (from this link) reveals that by 1995 ACORN was at the same time the biggest asset for the New Party, supplying a large number of registrations every month.
By 1996 ACORN and the New Party were essentially the same body.

Obama was the council representing ACORN in 1995, and from 1995 - 1999 (the same year that the new party was found unconstituional and died) he led the CAC which supplied funding to ACORN and was the brain child of Bill Ayers. He remained on the board until 2001.

From all this it is clear that Obama was a member of a radical Socialist Party. It is also clear, once again, that he has lied on an important issue and has proven once again that you can't trust him at face value.


EDIT:
It is a little difficult to find anything about Obama and the New Party on the web at this point, but the old google (link) which was released recently, shows what google looked like in early 2001 - with links to the web archive for any pages you find with it...
It has revealed some interesting things so far...

Obama not walking the walk on Women's pay...

Barack Obama continues to attack John McCain on the issue of equal pay for equal work for women.
While this is all well and good, maybe he should start doing what he is speaking...

In Obama's Senate office, women staff make 83 cents on the dollar what men are paid.
Of his top 5 payed staff, only one is a woman, and of his top 20 only 7 are women. (source/link - cbsnews, and JohnMcCain.com)

Compare this to John McCain's 17 male employees who were payed on average nearly 2000 less than his 25 female employees. (same links)


This is just another example of the Obama campaign using made-up issues (and outright lying) to attack John McCain and Sarah Palin.
When the Obama campaign actually starts to "walk the walk" I will accept their line about being the issue and fact based campaign.
Until then, perhaps they should do a little self-examination.

McCain's in trouble...

Well, following the last debate I had the distinct impression Obama won (yes, you read the correctly).
McCain just seemed very... off, and little whiny (part of that is just how he talks as it is, but still...).
Obama on the other hand seemed Presidential and ready to tackle these issues.

While I still disagree with him on a lot of issues, and i still don't think he has the experience, and I still don't believe he truly is ready to handle all these issues as President, I have to hand this performance to him.
So I see the debates to have gone a tie for the first, a tie for the second (Palin/Biden) and a clear Obama victory for the second.

Now, McCain claims he is going to "whip" Obama's "you-know-what" at this next and last debate.
He sure needs to to even have a chance at this point.


Following the polls from rasmussen they seems remakably stable - Obama has had 50-52% support for weeks, and McCain has had 44-45% in the same period.
The closest they have been in that period were following the VEEP debate and today, with Obama at 50% and McCain at 45% support.
That is really bad news for McCain.

Another unsettling trend in the polls - in most of the swing states that were close before, Obama has opened large leads.
In only two has McCain gained any ground since Obama's surge - Indiana and Virginia.
Virginia he is still down but competitively inside the margin of error now, and in Indiana he has extended his lead to make it pretty solidly in his favor.

So that's about it for the polls, now for other interesting occurances since my last post...


McCain tried to tone down the attacks on Obama a bit, instead pointing out a few of his good features. Obama responded by thanking McCain and pointing out some things good about McCain, and thanking him for his service to the country.
Both comments were met with boos (and a few cheers too, but not as many).
I guess people on both sides would prefer the divisiveness we have now instead of getting to the meat of some of these issues.

Which is something that bothers me tremendously. On the campaign trail candidates really don't have a lot of time to go into great detail on what they plan to do. Neither do they get the chance in these 90 second response debates.
A lot of the time we have to wait for them to get elected to Congress (or the Presidency) before you really know what they plan to do, and by that point it is really hard to figure out exactly what people proposed or what all was in a bill the voted for and how it will effect you.
Just think how Bush said a lot of good things, but then his idea of implementing them has been really stupid.
I think we need a plain old debate that is set to run for longer (a lot longer) than the current ones. And then give the candidates some actual time to debate the issues - only moving on once they are finished.

I don't know if that is possible, but it sure would be interesting I think.


Another thing that happened last week - Palin wore a white dress (again, oh no!) - which, to some, meant she was being racist.
I guess that means Michelle Obama is a white suppremacist too, as she wears white often...
And Palin must be a black suppremacist the days she wears black.
Really quite stupid...


And now, to the really interesting occurance - the Palin investigation report.

It claims that it was perfectly legal and within her power to dismiss the state commisioner - like she has been saying all along.

It then goes onto say that she abused her power as a state official in her (and her husbands) attempt to get a state trooper fired.
It claims that the commisioners failure to discharge the state trooper was a contributing factor to him being dismissed (or reassigned actually I think...) - but not the sole reason.
In this she apparently broke a state ethics law that states that one may not use official action for personal reasons.

Now, I can understand this if the only reason she had given for attempting to get the state trooper fired because of his divorce from her sister.
But this is not the case.
This state trooper had tasered one of his step children, illegally killed several moose, driven drunk in a patrol car, and other issues.
The document states that these (and not the personal "he was involved in a bitter divorce with Palin's sister") were the primary complaints raised against him.
Now, I do not see where complaining about a state trooper not being fired due to conduct (and illegal actions) falls under that state ethics bill.

Either way, though, the report does not think anything "illegal" was done, nor does it push for any criminal investigations or any sanctions.
So, how can she have violated a state ethics law if she had done absolutely nothing illegal?

The first two debates...

Following the first Presidential debate, Obama has opened a large lead, both nationally and in many key battleground states.
The polls have now remained steady for a week - so the only conclusion I can reach is Obama did indeed win the first debate.

McCain did far better than I was anticipating, and it looked like point for point he got in more hits on Obama - but obviously the American audience disagreed.


Now, following the VEEP debate, I think McCain will rebound in the polls, at least moderately, if only until the next Presidential debate.

The reason's being are simple.
First, I think Obama is already above the real ceiling of support he can get, being around 50-51% steadily across several polls.
Second, nothing Palin did will have put off anyone who had not already written her off to begin with.
Third, Biden did nothing, in my opinion, to gain any kind of new support for Obama.

That leaves things to remain as they are, or go in the direction of McCain.

I think they will move in his direction, though, because it appears most people agree Palin won the debate. She appeared far more knowledgeable than most gave her credit for, and she was successful at attacking Obama/Biden several times.

Frank Luntz held a focus group during the debate that was split evenly between people who went for Kerry and Bush in 2004.
When asked who won the debate, all but, to my count, 3 or 4 people said it was Palin.
Also, the most well-received statement in this (or even in the first debate as well, if I recall correctly) came from Palin.

On the other hand, Luntz' focus group during the first debate gave Obama the win, as well as the best line.

Also, the response from Democrats, that I have seen, has been far more subdued this time than with the Presidential debate - which for me is a clear indicator of who really won.
A lot of them are saying she did absolutely nothing but avoid questions and get back to her talking points.
But that is also exactly what Biden did throughout.
Is it a good style - yes, and no.
I disagree with it because I would prefer to see more substance, but, it appears to work with people, and the sound-bytes play well in the media, so I'm not surprised.

So I think that without doubt, this will be reflected positively in the polls in a few days once they begin to register it.
It may disappear again with the next debate, but we will have to see.

Well done Governor Palin!